Is there a cure for running bad?

[MJE77]

I took a massive break from poker, about a year and a half, and when I came back I felt inspired, fresh etc. and started off very well with 6 wins out of 6 in sngs. Then I started to win one lose one and then suddenly started running bad and at the moment I'm just taking 3 steps forward 2 steps back due to donks outdrawing me.

But each new day I forget the pain of any bad beats and just feel good in the fact that by probability I should now have hands hold up. Doesn't work that way though.

I find that when you're already infront you get luck and when you need it you don't. For example you're late in a tournament and stick it in with KK vs 99 and another K comes on the flop. Then when you need that bit of luck it doesn't come.

I think the difference between top players and average is not how much luck but the timing of it.

If we all had a 'luck button' that you can press 3 times each during a tournament or something then the better players would win everytime.

At the end of the day you have to smile everytime some donk gets lucky because if it wasn't for them we wouldn't be able to profit in the game. If there wasn't any luck then there wouldn't be any point in playing as the best player would always win!

[MarkAllen]

ninja,

There are plenty of articles and chapters in poker books about when to quit a game or quit for the day. As one who plays both live and online, I can tell you that it's much more difficult to quit an online game than a live game. Still...

Poker is a lifelong session. The cards aren't going to be any different if you play your next hand in 2 minutes or 2 years from now. It's all in your state of mind. If your mindset is one that handicaps you, it's time to quit. If you have issues going on in your personal life, you probably shouldn't play at all. But, if you're making good decisions...more succinctly, if you're making better decisions than your opposition in the game...you should continue to play whether you're winning or losing, so says the professional poker majority. Just be objective about your own ability and whether you have any edge against the competition. In other words, can you beat the game.

I've heard and read a number of different "time to quit" signals. I've personally adopted 2 that I use. 1. The losses have reached the point that it's painful. 2. You have made X mistakes in the last X hands you've played.

I have a set amount I'm willing to invest in a good game, in terms of buyins, and if they're used up, I leave the game. This is regardless of whether I lost due to bad beats or not. Specifically, it would pain me to lose 5 buy ins in a single game. So if I lose 2 buyins in a single game, I either quit for the day or go find a softer/better game instead. Either I'm not a favorite or my style of play isn't one that's going to beat the opponents I'm facing. I've bent this rule a few times, but never made a profit doing so. (These blankity-blank fish call down with bottom pair! How can I possibly not beat this game?! By catching miracle cards, by shoving light and forcing me to fold, by making me make bad decisions--like open shoving with AA UTG for 100BB. [My definition for tilt.])

I know I'm done for the day if I make 3 mistakes in the last 6 hands I (voluntarily) played. We all make mistakes every day we play, it's a given in a game of incomplete information. But when I start making them frequently, I attribute it to a lack of focus, tiredness/fatigue, or (when running bad) tilt. This is a sign that continuing to play is a bad investment and it's time to leave.

EDIT: I remember reading that a particular pro (I want to say Chip Reese but I could be mistaken) allowed himself 2 mistakes per session. When he made a 2nd mistake for the day, he quit.

I spend about an hour each day preparing for that days session by reviewing my previous day's play. I take 30 minute breaks every 2-3 hrs, during which time I'm on CardPlayer.com or 2+2 reading articles and forums. This puts me the in right frame of mind to play well. None of this makes me immune to bad beats, but I sure handle them better when I'm in the right frame of mind.

For instance, my stellar hand today. I'm on the button w/Tc Ts, 9-handed. MP limps, I raise 5xBB, SB folds, BB reraises to 17BB, MP folds, I call. BB is a semi-loose aggro player who bets 80-100% of the pot with his entire range (when he's taken the lead in a hand)--pp's, draws, over pairs. He can be a handful on the river cuz when he misses he bets the full pot on the river. He was caught bluffing in the hand previous to this one. Flop 5s 6s Th. I have top set--sweet. BB leads out for a PSB. I type in the chat box, "Why so much?" and call after the timer beeps. Turn: 9d. Obviously, I'm putting my opponent on Ax spades, QQ+. BB leads the turn with another PSB, which at this point is half his remaining stack. I type in the chat box, "Why are you pushing so hard?" and just call. I thought about shoving here, but he's doing such a good job of betting my hand, I don't want to discourage him. Whatever hits the river I know it's all going in. The river is the 7h. As expected, BB shoves his remaining stack. I instacall. He has pocket 8's and rivered his gutshot straight.

Looking at this hand, yeah, the result is bad, but I put myself in a good situation to get my opponent's entire stack. My only opportunity to take down the pot without a showdown was on the flop, but with top set and my opponent betting my hand for me (and dead to runner runner), thats just not an option I'm ever going to go for. I trapped him perfect, dead to 4 outs, and he got lucky. This is a pot I want to grow big, and I succeeded in doing that. The deck simply kicked me in the nuts. Like they say, that's poker.

Pick the good spots. Most of them work out in your favor, most of the time. It's only when the bad beats come in bunches that I really doubt my game. I just have to review the hands to see if I made mistakes. Sometimes yes (I rivered the nut flush but now the board is paired and villain is betting into me? RAISE! Oops, he has Jacks full. CRAP!), sometimes no (like the example above). If I'm making too many, it's time to step away til I'm back in the right frame of mind.

[MarkAllen]

*WARNING* Whining ahead!!!

I've only been playing 2 hrs and it's already been one of those days. Playing 6 tables, FT FR cash. Here's a sample:

Bad beats in chronological order:
QQ, all in preflop, villain has 66. Board: 9 T 6 2 5
*QQ, all in on the flop, villain has 77. Board: 9 2 7 2 T
AKs, all in on the turn, villain has A7o. Board: J A Q 2 7
AA, all in preflop, villain has AJo. Board: J J 5 2 J
*JJ, all in on the flop, villain has TT. Board: 5 8 T Q K
ATo, all in on the turn, villain has 86o. Board: 5 4 T 8 8
*ATs, I value bet the river, villain shoves for less than a full raise and I pay him off, villain has JTo. Board: T 2 6 7 J
AQo, villain is all in on the flop and I call, villain has QTo. Board: Q 3 9 T K
QQ, all in on the flop, villain has A6o. Board: 6 3 J A K

*Technically not a Bad Beat as villain was the favorite when the rest of the money went in.

Cold decks:
JJ, all in preflop, villain has AA. Board: 3 9 K A 8
AKs, I folded on the flop, 2 villains (both spewtards), AA and KK. Board: 6 3 6 x x

Could be worse as most of these villains weren't full stacked. So instead of losing 11 buyins, I'm only down 6 total buyins after my 2 hr session. Still, that's like NEGATIVE 100BB/100. Ick.

I'll leave out the races I lost, but those are pretty standard. Don't like racing but if I have the pair side of the equation and I'm getting the right odds (and villain has less than 100BB), I'll take the flip if I have 10's or better against most spewtards. TAGs I'll flip with a bit more discretion. Occassionally I find myself on the wrong side of a pair vs pair situation, but it's rare....more often I have an overpair to their suited connectors.

Anyways, don't feel I could avoid any of these hands except the AT vs JT hand where the J hit the river. He shoved over the top of my value bet and I figured he had me beat, whether he had the JT, 89, or was sandbagging a set, I knew it was a crying call, and made it cuz it was only 15% of the pot to call. Yuck.

Once again, running bad but don't feel I'm playing bad. Each time I'm in a great spot and the deck is just not cooperating. Same story, different day. Taking a break....in Tahiti.

[MarkAllen]

Felt obligated to those who read my whining post from the other day when I was running at NEGATIVE 126BB/100 in my first 2 hours of play ... to let them know that the universe has evened out. In my first two hours of tonight's session, I averaged 149BB/100.

A lot of big hands that held up:
AA was 8 for 8.
AK was 14 for 17.
KK was 5 for 6.
QQ was 3 for 5.
JJ was 8 for 9.

Sure was fun. Thanks for listening and gl at the tables.

[MJE77]

Wow! It would take me days to get that many of those hands lol.

[Donald Duck 12]

drink beer

[paul123]

Did someone say beer????????????

[king364]

hi
how can i analyze my games in PE?
i mean how can i discover and remove my leaks by PE?
thank u alot

[hitoall938]

hi
how can i analyze my games in PE?
i mean how can i discover and remove my leaks by PE?
thank u alot

\

You need a software like HEM or PTR3 for that. I would recommend HEM tho.

And it sucks running bad. Especially when you are playing at higher stakes and run -$600 below EV, like ****

[JohnnyTropic]

A separate database program such as HM is eventually going to be the best for in depth self analysis. However, you can use PE to look at what you are doing and identify a lot of leaks as a start. Especially with the stats tracked in v5. You can find a lot of information about other players and exploit their weaknesses with it, so why wouldn't you expect to be able to identify your own weaknesses with it?

First off, you will need to have a good sample to work with. Then you want a base line. Someone you see is solid with good results in your game of choice. Analyze THEIR stats then compare to yours.

You can also look at some generalities to get started like your VP, PFR, VP/PFR ratio, 3bet, steal, defend bb, defend sb, cold call just to name a few. Are you too loose, too tight, raise too much, raise too little, too aggressive or too passive, in too many hands oop, what is your showdown percent and win at showdown.

The best thing to do is look at what some others have posted as to their own stats and what feedback they got. It's like, "here, this is what I've been doing, what are your opinions with it?" Some may ask you to post specific stats. Then you will get suggestions, recommendations and tore up because you suck, (just kidding, it's all good natured and expect a little "guy talk bb" aka ballbusting.). You can see various viewpoints and make any adjustments based on the advice given.

Self analysis requires discipline and honesty. Your game type and skill level as well as stakes and br are all important information to determine a course of action and what may be most optimal for you. Honesty as in self honesty is the most difficult. It is human nature to be blind or overlook ones own shortcomings until pointed out and they realize they can do something about it if they choose to.

GL on your path to knowledge.

[hitoall938]

I actually disagree with comparing your stats to other player stats. Sure you can take look at how different the regs play, but the most important is to understand why you play a certain way. There is certainly no ideal way to play, you really should do what works for you and what you feel comfortable with. Adjusting your game because some regs play certain way is actually a good idea, especially when you get to exploit their leaks. But you should never look at their stats, and try and get the same stats because you will never understand why you play a certain way which would leave to post flop mistakes.

Pre-flop is just a setup of post flop. And pre-flop stats mean nothing of post-flop play, they are 2 separate components.

Also, you really should be importing all of your hands into HEM/PTR3 after every session and then review each session. Leak Buster might help some and you should also post your stats+graphs on 2+2 where Mpethy along with others can help you find your leaks. An example would be is to look at the positional stats and you will see where you lose the most money. An example would be is some players defending their blinds too much and losing extreme amounts from the blinds.

And if you are a serious player, then you should really considering getting HEM/PTR3 ASAP. $80 is really not that much and you will always need that software in your poker career.

[JohnnyTropic]

Disagree all you want but the way to get better in anything in the world is to study the masters and learn from them.

Not everyone can afford a lot of software starting out. This is the poker edge forum. We can make suggestions now and then about other things but we aren't here to talk about or promote other software.

[hitoall938]

Disagree all you want but the way to get better in anything in the world is to study the masters and learn from them.

So, you are telling me we should all be trying to play like them pre and post? So we should be aiming for the same VPIP/PFR/AGR, etc?

Can you please tell me which stats we should be aiming now for? 10/6 or 50/20?

Also, define a "master".

Not everyone can afford a lot of software starting out. This is the poker edge forum. We can make suggestions now and then about other things but we aren't here to talk about or promote other software.

This is quite funny. PE along with all the subscriptions costs way more then HEM/PTR3. I am in no way promoting their software, but i am actually helping out the users because they will need it eventually. Any serious player would be considering getting it, but i guess you are the last person we should ask.

Oh and do you actually think PE is competing with HEM/PTR3?

[abigail]

Stop playing. at least for a little while ... i mean this is only my way because otherwise the frustration could bite my head off I just need to have a little break and continue playing the next day or something like that.

[2jzgte]

I just find it funny that when it rains, it pours. Meaning, when you run bad, you run really bad. Set, over set, full house over flush.

I'm on a downswing and strange how poker works this way